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NFL Season Totals 11-05-2002
Mean
System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS
Up Spread Error Bias Error W L W L
1 Matthews Grid 0.63077 0.59843 10.8418 1.1935 199.48 82 48 76 51
2 Elo Ratings 0.59231 0.54331 11.5598 1.5708 225.46 77 53 69 58
3 CPA Retro Rankings 0.59231 0.40157 12.1015 0.7196 229.84 77 53 51 76
4 Massey Ratings 0.58462 0.51181 10.7797 1.6915 186.73 76 54 65 62
5 Line (opening) 0.57692 0.55072 10.7615 1.0308 187.84 75 55 38 31
6 Line (updated) 0.57692 . 10.7846 0.9692 188.15 75 55 . .
7 YourLinx 0.57692 0.46825 11.6754 0.7277 212.15 75 55 59 67
8 Sagarin Predictive 0.56923 0.56349 10.9198 1.4207 194.01 74 56 71 55
9 PerformanZ Ratings 0.56923 0.59843 11.1122 0.5302 210.19 74 56 76 51
10 Kambour Rating 0.56923 0.52846 11.1846 1.5077 192.07 74 56 65 58
11 CPA Rankings 0.56923 0.50394 11.9748 0.7782 232.50 74 56 64 63
12 ARGH Power Ratings 0.56154 0.55372 10.9096 0.6404 199.79 73 57 67 54
13 Stat Fox 0.56154 0.51240 11.5308 1.5308 205.41 73 57 62 59
14 Least Squares 0.56154 0.51969 13.0461 -0.0612 279.78 73 57 66 61
15 Sagarin 0.55385 0.56693 11.1477 1.2723 202.02 72 58 72 55
16 PerformanZ Test 0.55385 0.51181 11.4987 0.6598 208.86 72 58 65 62
17 Pigskin Index 0.54615 0.48696 11.0615 1.5692 187.12 71 59 56 59
18 Moore's Ratings 0.54615 0.54331 11.2459 1.3025 205.32 71 59 69 58
19 Sagarin Elo 0.54615 0.51181 11.4520 1.1522 215.97 71 59 65 62
20 Dunkel Index 0.54615 0.51181 11.8285 0.7285 222.14 71 59 65 62
21 Pythagorean Ratings 0.53846 0.47619 12.4385 1.0238 238.98 70 60 60 66
22 System Average 0.53077 0.54331 11.0922 0.9870 199.20 69 61 69 58
23 Least Abs. Val Reg 0.53077 0.48031 14.5530 -0.4616 330.20 69 61 61 66
24 Free Sports Play 0.51538 0.54955 10.9615 1.3923 185.59 67 63 61 50
25 Scoring Effeciency 0.52756 0.45968 11.4942 0.9984 211.89 67 60 57 67
26 Hank's Power Ratings 0.51538 0.49194 11.5462 -0.4231 211.90 67 63 61 63
27 JFM Power Ratings 0.54000 0.48454 11.9900 2.6660 222.93 54 46 47 50
28 LS - w/ team HFA 0.41538 0.38583 25.7491 -3.5700 1133.40 54 76 49 78
29 Jeff Imes 0.63095 0.47500 12.5536 -1.5869 280.26 53 31 38 42
30 Grid Iron Gold 0.59302 0.58108 9.4419 1.3953 159.04 51 35 43 31
31 Strengthranking.com 0.54762 0.41975 12.2544 1.3030 244.91 46 38 34 47
32 Flyman Ratings 0.66667 0.47500 11.0893 3.5202 240.36 28 14 19 21
33 YourLinx Retro 0.66667 0.51282 11.2690 2.6881 251.66 28 14 20 19
34 Mike Greenfield 0.64286 0.45000 11.6817 3.1117 295.29 27 15 18 22
35 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 0.61905 0.42500 10.7571 2.9619 234.99 26 16 17 23
36 Jeff Self 0.59524 0.47500 10.6900 2.1929 224.15 25 17 19 21
37 Bihl Rankings 0.59524 0.47500 11.5455 3.6517 265.55 25 17 19 21
38 John Coffey 0.57143 0.45000 10.9929 2.6233 234.00 24 18 18 22
39 TSR Slots 0.64286 0.69231 12.9164 7.2450 283.75 9 5 9 4
40 The Sports Report 0.64286 0.53846 15.1429 10.2857 540.44 9 5 7 6
41 Frank Adler 0.57143 0.38462 14.9893 12.3750 473.83 8 6 5 8
Week 9
Mean
System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS
Up Spread Error Bias Error W L W L
1 YourLinx 0.64286 0.61538 12.2286 10.1714 347.232 9 5 8 5
2 Kambour Rating 0.64286 0.46154 12.8571 10.2857 327.586 9 5 6 7
3 TSR Slots 0.64286 0.69231 12.9164 7.2450 283.748 9 5 9 4
4 CPA Retro Rankings 0.64286 0.53846 13.1907 10.9750 393.365 9 5 7 6
5 ARGH Power Ratings 0.64286 0.53846 13.2857 10.8571 376.580 9 5 7 6
6 YourLinx Retro 0.64286 0.53846 14.1000 12.0286 419.247 9 5 7 6
7 Matthews Grid 0.64286 0.53846 14.1236 12.0907 432.247 9 5 7 6
8 PerformanZ Test 0.64286 0.38462 14.1357 10.7886 418.499 9 5 5 8
9 The Sports Report 0.64286 0.53846 15.1429 10.2857 540.443 9 5 7 6
10 Jeff Imes 0.64286 0.41667 15.2857 11.6286 534.811 9 5 5 7
11 Mike Greenfield 0.64286 0.46154 15.9686 14.0329 574.549 9 5 6 7
12 Line (opening) 0.57143 0.75000 12.4286 9.7143 323.367 8 6 6 2
13 Line (updated) 0.57143 . 12.7143 9.6429 328.215 8 6 . .
14 Stat Fox 0.57143 0.54545 13.2857 9.2857 368.984 8 6 6 5
15 Sagarin Elo 0.57143 0.61538 13.3264 11.6036 423.151 8 6 8 5
16 Sagarin 0.57143 0.46154 13.4943 11.1900 402.779 8 6 6 7
17 System Average 0.57143 0.53846 13.6421 11.1179 400.029 8 6 7 6
18 John Coffey 0.57143 0.46154 13.9086 11.3429 410.363 8 6 6 7
19 Sagarin Predictive 0.57143 0.38462 13.9614 10.8814 390.883 8 6 5 8
20 CPA Rankings 0.57143 0.46154 14.0443 12.2414 426.158 8 6 6 7
21 Dunkel Index 0.57143 0.53846 14.4714 10.9286 473.022 8 6 7 6
22 LS - w/ team HFA 0.57143 0.38462 14.8821 11.2964 466.628 8 6 5 8
23 Frank Adler 0.57143 0.38462 14.9893 12.3750 473.833 8 6 5 8
24 Bihl Rankings 0.57143 0.46154 15.4814 13.0043 478.677 8 6 6 7
25 Least Squares 0.57143 0.23077 16.1650 11.4964 468.615 8 6 3 10
26 Grid Iron Gold 0.50000 0.66667 12.2857 9.5714 315.028 7 7 8 4
27 Pigskin Index 0.50000 0.66667 12.9286 9.7857 353.946 7 7 8 4
28 Massey Ratings 0.50000 0.30769 13.0100 10.8257 357.551 7 7 4 9
29 JFM Power Ratings 0.50000 0.46154 13.3507 10.8450 367.193 7 7 6 7
30 Jeff Self 0.50000 0.53846 13.5157 11.3529 392.829 7 7 7 6
31 PerformanZ Ratings 0.50000 0.53846 13.5450 11.0093 398.226 7 7 7 6
32 Strengthranking.com 0.50000 0.30769 13.5607 9.3907 343.684 7 7 4 9
33 Hank's Power Ratings 0.50000 0.53846 13.5714 9.4286 349.936 7 7 7 6
34 Flyman Ratings 0.50000 0.46154 14.1307 12.1821 422.435 7 7 6 7
35 Elo Ratings 0.50000 0.46154 14.2579 12.2279 436.976 7 7 6 7
36 Kasulis Enhanced Spread 0.50000 0.46154 14.6357 12.5929 465.498 7 7 6 7
37 Free Sports Play 0.42857 0.66667 12.9286 9.7857 303.374 6 8 8 4
38 Moore's Ratings 0.42857 0.46154 14.1664 10.9764 405.845 6 8 6 7
39 Least Abs. Val Reg 0.42857 0.30769 17.4286 11.0000 480.929 6 8 4 9
40 Scoring Effeciency 0.35714 0.15385 14.7193 11.6064 419.030 5 9 2 11
41 Pythagorean Ratings 0.35714 0.23077 16.1564 12.1264 465.520 5 9 3 10
SECOND HALF RESULTS
Mean
System Straight Against Mean Square SU ATS
Up Spread Error Bias Error W L W L
BEGIN NEXT WEEK
Retrodictive Records - through 11-06-02
Mean
Mean Square
System games W L Pct. Error Bias Error
1 TSR Slots 130 112 18 0.86154 8.9769 -1.43846 137.623
2 CPA Retro 130 105 25 0.80769 8.4855 -0.01785 124.622
3 CPA Rankings 130 101 29 0.77692 8.6038 0.00769 124.083
4 System Average 130 99 31 0.76154 8.7788 1.05048 133.276
5 The Sports Report 130 99 31 0.76154 9.6462 -1.36923 158.709
6 Least Abs. Val Reg 130 98 32 0.75385 8.5931 0.90692 144.711
7 Sagarin 130 97 33 0.74615 8.8956 0.64946 137.324
8 Matthew's Grid 130 97 33 0.74615 8.9274 1.65846 138.053
9 YourLinx Retro Ratings 130 97 33 0.74615 9.1538 1.64769 147.800
10 Sagarin Elo 130 96 34 0.73846 9.0508 0.65315 144.862
11 Massey Ratings 130 96 34 0.73846 9.1922 1.59554 141.950
12 Flyman Ratings 130 96 34 0.73846 9.3758 2.63238 153.577
13 LS - w/ team HFA 130 95 35 0.73077 8.0271 0.22872 100.655
14 Mike Greenfield 130 95 35 0.73077 8.9957 0.24015 138.368
15 Frank Adler 130 94 36 0.72308 8.9548 1.46254 140.807
16 PerformanZ Test 130 94 36 0.72308 9.0976 1.12532 131.693
17 YourLinx 130 94 36 0.72308 9.1592 1.57000 141.098
18 Sagarin Predictive 130 93 37 0.71538 8.8342 0.64369 132.347
19 Elo Ratings 130 93 37 0.71538 8.9494 1.55248 139.022
20 PerformanZ Ratings 130 92 38 0.70769 9.0658 0.50250 136.167
21 JFM Power Ratings 130 91 39 0.70000 9.0547 1.63515 138.868
22 Least Squares 130 90 40 0.69231 8.8278 0.15399 129.158
23 Dunkel Index 130 90 40 0.69231 9.3908 1.62000 148.905
24 Moore's Ratings 130 88 42 0.67692 9.1809 1.61846 152.240
25 Pythagorean Ratings 130 87 43 0.66923 9.0849 1.63544 136.348
26 Scoring Effeciency 130 86 44 0.66154 9.6644 0.59020 153.487
27 Grid Iron Gold 130 82 48 0.63077 9.5692 1.60000 154.457
28 Stat Fox 130 82 48 0.63077 9.6154 1.47692 142.799
29 Free Sports Play 130 82 48 0.63077 9.8846 1.45385 161.838
30 Strengthranking.com 130 79 51 0.60769 10.8662 1.20731 206.923
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = mean[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = mean(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases
