|
2002 SEASON TOTALS 11-18-02
System Straight Against Mean Bias Std. Mean Sq. SU ATS
Up Spread Error Error W L W L
1 ARGH Power Ratings 0.77122 0.49412 13.0083 0.33856 16.6536 276.945 418 124 252 258
2 Howell 0.76753 0.53346 13.0738 -0.48524 16.7622 280.689 416 126 271 237
3 PerformanZ Test 0.76199 0.53977 13.0815 0.55124 16.7913 281.731 413 129 285 243
4 Brent Craig 0.76766 0.55050 13.3104 -1.02788 16.9770 288.736 413 125 278 227
5 Edward Kambour 0.76340 0.54076 13.4111 -0.90728 17.1161 293.241 413 128 272 231
6 Moore Power Ratings 0.76015 0.55492 12.8609 -0.73771 16.4281 269.929 412 130 293 235
7 Born Power Index 0.75830 0.53920 13.9146 0.55332 18.6705 348.252 411 131 282 241
8 Massey Ratings 0.75646 0.51894 13.0100 -0.41044 16.4285 269.565 410 132 274 254
9 PerformanZ Ratings 0.75461 0.52273 13.1754 -0.07657 16.9626 287.205 409 133 276 252
10 Matthews Grid 0.75461 0.51326 13.4460 -1.43022 16.8757 286.306 409 133 271 257
11 System Average 0.75277 0.51423 12.8337 -0.58705 16.2879 265.151 408 134 271 256
12 Stat Fox 0.74908 0.54455 12.8303 0.53137 16.4493 270.361 406 136 275 230
13 Sagarin 0.74908 0.50947 13.2587 -0.41605 16.7459 280.081 406 136 269 259
14 Yourlinx 0.74723 0.52190 13.3251 -0.67601 16.7443 280.310 405 137 274 251
15 CPA Retro 0.74723 0.50000 13.5149 -0.27546 17.1871 294.929 405 137 264 264
16 SW! Tech 0.74861 0.51803 13.6822 -0.40299 17.2403 296.842 405 136 273 254
17 Sagarin Predictive 0.74539 0.50758 13.0616 -0.32131 16.5669 274.057 404 138 268 260
18 Line (updated) 0.75327 . 12.7963 -0.40187 16.1570 260.721 403 132 . .
19 Logistic Based Elo 0.73985 0.50285 13.4927 -0.96120 17.0503 291.098 401 141 265 262
20 CPA Rankings 0.73985 0.49905 13.5979 -0.06520 17.0784 291.138 401 141 263 264
21 Marsee 0.73432 0.52250 15.0923 1.10701 19.0105 361.957 398 144 267 244
22 Sagarin Elo 0.73247 0.50760 14.3782 -0.47889 18.5320 343.031 397 145 267 259
23 Pigskin Index 0.74019 0.53226 13.0860 -0.49533 16.6104 275.635 396 139 264 232
24 Bassett Model 0.74811 0.52335 13.6921 -0.09070 17.2098 295.626 395 133 269 245
25 Harmon Forcast 0.73034 0.50605 13.5880 0.39700 17.2098 295.779 390 144 251 245
26 The Sports Report 0.70741 0.49902 16.0389 -3.65741 19.7978 404.577 382 158 254 255
27 Dunkel Index 0.75862 0.56184 12.9359 -0.97850 16.3684 268.336 374 119 268 209
28 Billingsly 0.74037 0.50520 14.1467 -1.79278 18.0375 327.900 365 128 243 238
29 Line (opening) 0.74896 0.50249 12.8071 -0.32365 16.2398 263.287 361 121 202 200
30 Gupta Power Ratings 0.72746 0.53105 14.1393 -0.51025 18.3112 334.871 355 133 248 219
31 Chris Montgomery 0.68593 0.51302 15.4208 -2.04405 19.8394 396.781 273 125 197 187
32 Rothman * 0.73256 0.51807 15.1762 -0.89275 19.1318 365.402 189 69 129 120
33 New York Times * 0.76098 0.43434 14.6441 -1.29088 18.4949 342.051 156 49 86 112
34 Bihl System 0.75862 0.53061 13.0246 0.55340 16.7818 280.548 154 49 104 92
35 Massey BCS * 0.74634 0.44670 14.9810 -0.65356 18.6409 346.213 153 52 88 109
36 Colley Rankings * 0.74634 0.45960 15.0490 -0.06790 18.7523 349.937 153 52 91 107
37 Darryl Perry 0.67188 0.49468 17.9946 -0.91500 23.7494 561.927 129 63 93 95
38 YourLinx Retro 0.80380 0.49673 13.7215 -0.78101 17.1116 291.560 127 31 76 77
39 Wolfe * 0.74834 0.38095 14.9776 -0.56689 18.4990 340.267 113 38 56 91
40 TSR Slots 0.72727 0.48387 14.8687 -3.19192 18.5399 350.342 72 27 45 48
41 Massey Consensus * 0.81132 0.41176 13.9194 -1.11717 17.4875 301.266 43 10 21 30
42 Seattle Times * 0.75472 0.37255 14.6617 -2.11000 18.1105 326.170 40 13 19 32
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Week 13
Mean
System Straight Against Mean Bias Std. Square SU ATS
Up Spread Error Error W L W L
1 ARGH Power Ratings 0.76768 0.48750 12.8746 0.78872 16.4780 271.688 456 138 273 287
2 Howell 0.76599 0.52962 12.9621 -0.06987 16.6126 275.520 455 139 295 262
3 PerformanZ Test 0.76431 0.53713 12.9072 1.00079 16.6189 276.721 454 140 311 268
4 Brent Craig 0.76949 0.54234 13.1508 -0.51695 16.8098 282.357 454 136 301 254
5 Edward Kambour 0.76520 0.54098 13.1476 -0.37304 16.8715 284.304 453 139 297 252
6 Moore Power Ratings 0.76094 0.55268 12.6084 -0.29766 16.2377 263.308 452 142 320 259
7 Born Power Index 0.76094 0.54196 13.5692 0.95303 18.3045 335.398 452 142 310 262
8 Matthews Grid 0.75589 0.50777 13.2568 -0.96239 16.7085 279.630 449 145 294 285
9 Massey Ratings 0.75421 0.51986 12.8231 -0.00044 16.2567 263.834 448 146 301 278
10 PerformanZ Ratings 0.75421 0.51641 13.0314 0.36911 16.8152 282.412 448 146 299 280
11 System Average 0.75084 0.51903 12.6288 -0.17167 16.1078 259.054 446 148 300 278
12 Yourlinx 0.75084 0.52431 13.0589 -0.26633 16.5389 273.145 446 148 302 274
13 SW! Tech 0.75211 0.52595 13.4099 -0.07921 16.9868 288.071 446 147 304 274
14 Line (updated) 0.75809 . 12.5690 0.01193 15.9587 254.248 445 142 . .
15 Stat Fox 0.74916 0.53874 12.6633 1.05051 16.2658 265.234 445 149 299 256
16 Sagarin 0.74747 0.50777 13.0751 -0.02727 16.5569 273.669 444 150 294 285
17 Sagarin Predictive 0.74411 0.50950 12.8350 0.07354 16.3517 266.934 442 152 295 284
18 CPA Retro 0.74411 0.49568 13.5093 0.20481 17.1129 292.401 442 152 287 292
19 CPA Rankings 0.73906 0.49654 13.4050 0.39978 16.8737 284.402 439 155 287 291
20 Logistic Based Elo 0.73737 0.50865 13.2931 -0.50754 16.8422 283.440 438 156 294 284
21 Pigskin Index 0.74106 0.53394 12.8211 -0.04089 16.3756 267.704 435 152 291 254
22 Sagarin Elo 0.73232 0.50260 14.2208 -0.10195 18.3058 334.550 435 159 290 287
23 Bassett Model 0.74957 0.52482 13.4646 0.42599 17.0117 289.079 434 145 296 268
24 Marsee 0.73064 0.52585 14.8165 1.47643 18.7734 354.022 434 160 295 266
25 Harmon Forcast 0.73162 0.50460 13.3812 0.72479 17.0214 289.756 428 157 274 269
26 The Sports Report 0.70946 0.51342 15.5557 -3.31588 19.3381 384.307 420 172 287 272
27 Dunkel Index 0.75413 0.56381 12.6389 -0.47706 16.1744 261.359 411 134 296 229
28 Billingsly 0.73945 0.50188 14.0154 -1.27167 17.8567 319.891 403 142 267 265
29 Line (opening) 0.75281 0.50685 12.5515 0.14326 16.0157 256.043 402 132 222 216
30 Gupta Power Ratings 0.72963 0.53295 13.9037 -0.10926 18.0144 323.929 394 146 275 241
31 Chris Montgomery 0.69333 0.50345 15.0316 -1.44811 19.3705 376.476 312 138 219 216
32 Rothman * 0.73871 0.52000 14.5413 -0.22913 18.5848 344.332 229 81 156 144
33 New York Times * 0.76265 0.45968 14.0077 -0.16175 17.8434 317.175 196 61 114 134
34 Bihl System 0.75889 0.54286 12.5130 1.30502 16.2108 263.449 192 61 133 112
35 Massey BCS * 0.74708 0.44355 14.4037 0.20062 18.0077 323.057 192 65 110 138
36 Colley Rankings * 0.74319 0.46988 14.3438 0.62786 18.0257 324.055 191 66 117 132
37 YourLinx Retro 0.79048 0.50490 13.2071 0.23952 16.6344 275.443 166 44 103 101
38 Wolfe * 0.75369 0.39394 14.2451 0.46133 17.7350 313.193 153 50 78 120
39 Darryl Perry 0.67188 0.49468 17.9946 -0.91500 23.7494 561.927 129 63 93 95
40 TSR Slots 0.74834 0.50704 13.6026 -1.97351 17.2325 298.862 113 38 72 70
41 Massey Consensus 0.78095 0.47059 12.4647 1.29743 16.0276 256.106 82 23 48 54
42 Anderson/Hester * 0.75238 0.42157 13.1870 0.85819 16.6658 275.834 79 26 43 59
SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON (WEEK 9+)
Mean
System Straight Against Mean Bias Std. Square SU ATS
Up Spread Error Error W L W L
1 Born Power Index 0.77344 0.56148 13.0344 2.26797 17.3217 303.993 198 58 137 107
2 PerformanZ Test 0.76953 0.53012 12.7849 2.64793 16.3132 272.066 197 59 132 117
3 ARGH Power Ratings 0.76953 0.45679 13.0361 2.19824 16.4238 273.502 197 59 111 132
4 PerformanZ Ratings 0.76172 0.50201 12.9468 1.95461 16.5041 275.127 195 61 125 124
5 New York Times * 0.76172 0.45968 14.0188 -0.11867 17.8650 317.925 195 61 114 134
6 Line (updated) 0.76378 . 12.2815 1.13976 15.9194 253.722 194 60 . .
7 Moore Power Ratings 0.75781 0.51807 12.4718 0.58184 16.2638 263.816 194 62 129 120
8 Edward Kambour 0.76378 0.48472 12.7205 1.87795 16.1658 263.817 194 60 111 118
9 Matthews Grid 0.75781 0.45783 13.3041 0.45246 16.7631 280.107 194 62 114 135
10 Brent Craig 0.76078 0.50847 13.4000 0.78039 17.0106 288.833 194 61 120 116
11 Massey Ratings 0.75391 0.49799 12.9911 1.16098 16.6153 276.333 193 63 124 125
12 Yourlinx 0.75391 0.47390 13.0148 0.53594 16.6365 275.978 193 63 118 131
13 Sagarin 0.75391 0.45382 13.0939 1.10875 16.7386 280.312 193 63 113 136
14 System Average 0.75000 0.49398 12.8430 1.01297 16.3785 268.229 192 64 123 126
15 Howell 0.75000 0.49796 13.2930 1.41016 16.8220 283.856 192 64 122 123
16 Logistic Based Elo 0.75000 0.48193 13.3819 1.13336 17.0488 290.806 192 64 120 129
17 Marsee 0.75000 0.52500 14.1172 2.93750 17.8685 326.630 192 64 126 114
18 Bihl System 0.75794 0.54286 12.5520 1.29956 16.2429 264.466 191 61 133 112
19 SW! Tech 0.74609 0.53414 13.0493 1.23777 16.8245 283.483 191 65 133 116
20 The Sports Report 0.74902 0.54237 13.3020 -1.81176 16.5183 275.054 191 64 128 108
21 Massey BCS * 0.74609 0.44355 14.4321 0.22918 18.0372 324.122 191 65 110 138
22 Rothman * 0.74609 0.51210 14.9382 0.32840 19.0696 362.337 191 65 127 121
23 Stat Fox 0.74219 0.50420 12.7109 2.53125 16.1430 265.959 190 66 120 118
24 Harmon Forcast 0.74510 0.48052 13.3961 1.77255 17.0946 294.207 190 65 111 120
25 Chris Montgomery 0.74219 0.46586 13.6700 -0.36047 17.4039 301.840 190 66 116 133
26 Colley Rankings * 0.74219 0.46988 14.3736 0.65656 18.0551 325.144 190 66 117 132
27 Sagarin Predictive 0.73828 0.48996 12.4687 1.33371 16.1464 261.460 189 67 122 127
28 Dunkel Index 0.73828 0.53086 12.6094 0.51953 16.2838 264.396 189 67 129 114
29 Pigskin Index 0.73828 0.51477 12.6406 1.06250 16.3034 265.886 189 67 122 115
30 CPA Rankings 0.73438 0.44980 13.5061 1.60172 16.9972 290.333 188 68 112 137
31 Gupta Power Ratings 0.73438 0.52282 14.2637 1.13867 18.2474 332.957 188 68 126 115
32 Billingsly 0.73438 0.43775 14.7871 0.35383 18.5114 341.460 188 68 109 140
33 Bassett Model 0.74400 0.48770 13.5659 1.32576 17.1754 295.564 186 64 119 125
34 CPA Retro 0.72656 0.45382 14.2556 1.36078 17.9168 321.603 186 70 113 136
35 Sagarin Elo 0.72656 0.40964 14.9603 0.58051 19.1896 367.137 186 70 102 147
36 YourLinx Retro 0.79310 0.50254 13.2099 0.64631 16.6584 276.553 161 42 99 98
37 Line (opening) 0.75000 0.49383 12.1538 1.34135 15.9550 255.128 156 52 80 82
38 Wolfe * 0.75369 0.39394 14.2451 0.46133 17.7350 313.193 153 50 78 120
39 TSR Slots 0.74834 0.50704 13.6026 -1.97351 17.2325 298.862 113 38 72 70
40 Massey Consensus 0.78095 0.47059 12.4647 1.29743 16.0276 256.106 82 23 48 54
41 Anderson/Hester * 0.75238 0.42157 13.1870 0.85819 16.6658 275.834 79 26 43 59
Retrodictive Records through 11/11/02
Mean
Mean Square
System pct games W L Error Bias Error
1 TSR Slots 0.90875 537 488 49 12.0017 -4.97963 236.510
2 Sagarin Elo 0.88214 543 479 64 11.5296 -0.71483 221.855
3 Rothman 0.88029 543 478 65 11.2102 0.13551 203.886
4 Seattle Times * 0.87477 543 475 68 11.3790 -0.49140 211.956
5 Wolfe * 0.87477 543 475 68 11.5822 -0.03571 217.346
6 YourLinx Retro 0.87109 543 473 70 11.5230 -0.20516 213.637
7 The Sports Report 0.86965 537 467 70 12.6604 -4.43294 260.080
8 Colley Rankings * 0.86924 543 472 71 11.4565 -0.57738 214.120
9 Massey BCS * 0.86924 543 472 71 11.4893 -0.43961 214.665
10 Chris Montgomery 0.86740 543 471 72 11.8474 -2.69882 229.791
11 System Average 0.86556 543 470 73 10.2958 -0.73017 174.108
12 Sagarin 0.86372 543 469 74 10.6512 -0.65727 187.093
13 Massey Concensus Rank 0.86372 543 469 74 10.9353 -0.22680 193.185
14 Matthew's Grid 0.86188 543 468 75 10.9673 -0.87723 195.694
15 CPA Retro 0.86188 543 468 75 11.1624 0.04545 210.767
16 CPA Rankings 0.86004 543 467 76 10.6808 0.04182 192.299
17 Yourlinx 0.85820 543 466 77 10.6867 -0.03923 182.290
18 Billingsly 0.85451 543 464 79 11.8569 -0.94468 229.308
19 Logistic Based Elo 0.85267 543 463 80 10.4041 -1.38989 187.444
20 Massey Ratings 0.85083 543 462 81 10.5189 -0.76106 183.211
21 New York Times * 0.83978 543 456 87 12.0384 -0.23316 233.792
22 PerformanZ Ratings 0.83241 543 452 91 10.8182 0.37090 187.566
23 PerformanZ Test 0.82873 543 450 93 10.5301 0.93839 175.052
24 Sagarin Predictive 0.82505 543 448 95 10.2434 -0.55856 172.545
25 Dunkel Index 0.82505 543 448 95 10.7030 -0.08946 186.862
26 Moore 0.82136 543 446 97 10.5349 -0.16529 177.204
27 Pigskin Index 0.81215 543 441 102 10.6354 -0.48803 185.942
28 Born Power Index 0.81031 543 440 103 10.6490 1.58858 178.415
29 Stat Fox 0.78637 543 427 116 10.6262 -0.82136 182.404
* This BCS system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = mean[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = mean(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases
